The USDA publishes a semi-annual report, released in June and December, which includes data on trade, production, consumption and stocks in the United States and around the world, as well as an analysis of developments affecting world trade. apples, fresh grapes and pears.
Global production for 2020/21 is expected to decline by 3.6 million tonnes to 75.9 million due to a severe spring frost significantly affecting the northwestern provinces of China. Trade is also forecast to decline due to lower exportable supplies to the European Union and the United States. Chinese production is estimated to fall by 1.9 million tonnes to 40.5 million due to a severe spring frost in the northern provinces which affected flowering.
Although total production is declining, higher volumes of lower quality fruit are expected, increasing shipments to price-conscious Southeast Asian markets and raising exports to 1.1 million tonnes. Imports are expected to be 30,000 tonnes below 70,000 tonnes, as COVID-19 has caused logistical disruption, resulting in more cautious purchasing from importers.
EU production is expected to increase by over 500,000 tonnes to 12.2 million, as the increase in one-year supplies in non-commercial orchards more than offsets losses in weather-affected commercial orchards. Exports are forecast to decline from 135,000 tonnes to 880,000 tonnes due to a decrease in commercial supplies, while imports are also expected to decline to 460,000 tonnes, with lower shipments from Eastern European suppliers more than offsetting the losses. southern hemisphere supplies.
Turkish production is expected to increase by nearly 700,000 tonnes to 4.3 million despite some hailstorms in Kayseri and Isparta, the largest apple-producing province. Overall, good growing conditions and plantings of new varieties entering production are expected to generate a sixth consecutive year of growth. The increase in supply is expected to boost exports by nearly 30% to 270,000 tonnes, particularly to Russia and India.
Click here to view the full report.